Friday, November 21, 2008

Market: U.S. indices under their floors in March 2003.

No plan rescuing credible U.S. auto sector (and 'big 3') has been submitted to the White House after 48 hours of debate in U.S. Congress ... despite the efforts of compromise between Republicans and Democrats.

The problem seems decidedly too comprehensive and too complex to propose a purely budgetary response that has a chance to achieve a sustainable recovery-or even temporarily manufacturers of Detroit.

General Motors began by losing -40% (new floor of $ 1.70) before finishing a foot-like nose to the capitulation of the Dow-Jones up 3.3% ... the only increase among the 'industry'.

The result was a further slump on Wall Street during the last hour of quotations ... which precipitated the U.S. indices under their floors in March 2003 to October 2002 and even on 'lowest' never seen in 11 years and a half for the S & P-500 'which senfonce under 776Pts (floor which was thought history of 9 October 2002).

The flagship index-the broadest and most representative-dived to -7.3% for a few seconds of the fence to reach a nadir of 748Pts (it was 1007Pts November 4) and November results in a unprecedented decline -22.5% which exceeds anything that has ever been seen on Wall Street since the 1929/1932 period.

Never in addition, the S & P had lost -52% in 13 months, ever since 50 years (yes, since 1958) had seen the T-Bonds U.S. 10-year post 3.11% return or the'30 years' collapse to 3.57% (desperate flight to quality).
Not the Dow Jones (-5.55%) had ceded -19% in 3 weeks since 1929, much less 43% in 11 months. Nobody had ever imagined Citigroup dropping 50% in 48 hours (-26% to $ 4.75 this November 20) or -85% since 1 January.

Never had seen oil moving in 4 months from 148 to 48.5 per bbl (a division by 3 to a resource that will eventually wear, no matter the request at a 'T' is surreal) .

Specialists in the field of exploration, the parapétrolières, operators of gas fields collectively fell from -20% this Thursday (it too is history) with -27% in Chesapeake, -21% on National Oilwell or Peabody Energy, -19% on XTO Energy and Marathon Oil, -18% on Anadorko and -17% on the giant Halliburton (and what about -8.8% to -6.7% Chevron and Exxon-Mobil on?).

Never conglomerate General Electric had lost -10 and -11% in two consecutive sessions, or 25% of its value in one week in 70 years.

Not a manufacturer of special steel as Steel Dynamics had plunged -13 and -18% in 48 hours (or -49% over one month and -91% in 11 months) and Alcoa fall below -14 and -- 16% blow on blow.

Within the Nasdaq (-5.10%), Flextronics unscrewed from -30%, -27% of Sprint, Liberty Media -21%, -18.4% of Micron, Foster Wheeler and Joy Global -17% , Sandisk of -15.5%, Virgin Media -14.5%, -13% Akamai.

Not the VIX index (a barometer of anxiety) had reached 82% of the shares (10% in 24H) ... the crash of 1987 now appears almost anecdotal.

Regarding the economic environment is black as night on the Florida hurricane: leading indicators of activity in the United States emerged down 0.8% in October (according to the Conference Board).

Industrial activity has plummeted to -37.5 from 3.8 in the Philadelphia area in October, according to the monthly survey published Thursday by the local Federal Reserve (while economists predicted a decline of the index limited to About -10).

To cap it all, the Labor Department confirms all the signs of deterioration in the labor market observed in almost all sectors of activity (with the proliferation of plans dismissals): registration weekly unemployment rose 27,000 to 542,000 during the week ending Nov. 15.
The number of unemployed is up 109,000 and crossed the psychological course of the 4 million to 4.01 million.

For many operators, the general feeling in closing was either a new'1929 'Power 3 was running, or the capitulation of the end of November will reconnect buyers who do not subscribe to apocalyptic scenarios under which tend valuations current (the 'Dow' 7500Pts-to-apply unless the real estate, financial and industry of its 30 components).

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